Though population growth in many parts of the world is stagnating, sub-Saharan Africa’s is positively booming. If current trends continue, more than half of the world’s demographic growth until 2050 will take place there. In particular, its share of the global working-age population will increase from 10% to 25% in the coming years — meaning that a quarter of working individuals in the world will be African. 

This rebalancing of the world’s population will have dramatic socioeconomic ripple effects throughout the world. Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s leading hedge funds and macroeconomic researchers, partnered with Global Citizen to produce new research on the potential impact of this demographic explosion, offering insights into the forces behind these trends today and what direction the world could be headed down tomorrow. 

This research spotlights exactly how sub-Saharan Africa could shift the global economy in just a few short decades. If the international community meets the needs of this moment, and young Africans are enabled to access the tools they need to thrive, millions could be lifted out of poverty. The report’s findings underscore exactly why events like the upcoming Economic Development Assembly this October are vital to bring global attention to these trends and drive forward investments in the region. One of the best places to start investing is with the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) and IDA21, its 2024 replenishment campaign, to help it continue giving the world's most low-income countries's budgets a boost. 

There’s a lot to unpack — let’s dive in. 

Spotlight on Sub-Saharan Africa

The report explains that sub-Saharan Africa’s population is climbing primarily due to a combination of high fertility rates and longer life expectancies. Its citizens are mostly young, with a median age of just 18 compared to the global median of 31. About 35% of people in the region live in extreme poverty (the greatest share in the entire world). Over the last four decades, GDP per capita has remained relatively flat, food insecurity has been widespread, and up to 80% of workers remain in the informal sector. 

As a result, the report predicts that the region could go down two very different roads. If the population continues to grow with resources stretched ever thinner, high poverty levels could persist and create even starker levels of global inequality. 

However, there’s another path forward. If the demographic boom is met with an influx in development financing, sub-Saharan Africa could instead become a major world engine of economic growth. The report outlines how policymakers, multilateral development banks, and the private sector alike can seize the moment and catalyze growth across the continent.

With the right resources, we could see a future where millions of young people have access to the essential services they need, with a booming economy to match. 

Key Insights

The report offers five key takeaways: 

1. The region is currently undergoing a major demographic transformation that will impact both regional and global economies and geopolitics. 
2. These changes will vary significantly across countries, precluding any one-size-fits-all solution that addresses the entire continent’s needs. 
3. Policymakers must prioritize two things to put the region’s trajectory on the right track: closing both the infrastructure and human capital financing gaps. This can be done through increasing public and private sector investments.
4. Multilateral development banks (MDBs) will play a vital role in this process. The region currently only has about half the financing it needs to keep pace with its population, and MDBs are particularly well-positioned to fund development projects.
5. The private sector will also be essential in driving much-needed growth. This will first require removing barriers to wide-scale investments, including perceived risks and countries’ mixed trade policies. 

Meeting The Moment: The Importance of MDBs and IDA

The report emphasizes the importance of MDBs in kickstarting economic growth to drive investment, starting with the World Bank’s IDA21 replenishment campaign. IDA is the World Bank’s largest and most effective tool against extreme poverty. It provides exceptional return on investment, with every dollar it spends generating more than three times its value in financing for the world’s 75 most vulnerable countries, supporting 1.5 billion people. It does so by distributing grants and low-interest loans for countries to invest in quality healthcare, nutrition, education, social programs, and job training — everything an economy needs to thrive. 

In 2023 alone, IDA worldwide helped immunize 20 million children against preventable diseases, provided clean drinking water access for 8 million people, and increased generator capacity by 4.67 gigawatts (enough power to light half a billion light bulbs for a year). Over 70% of African countries currently receive aid from IDA, making it one of the continent's biggest sources of funding. IDA’s track record coupled with the Bridgewater report’s findings lead to one clear conclusion: G20 countries must increase their support for IDA21 so that the agency can build on its vital work in the region. 

At the Africa Heads of State Summit in Nairobi, African leaders argued that IDA21 should surpass IDA20, which raised $93 billion to cover mid-2022 to mid-2025. Surpassing this benchmark will be challenging, as political will for donations from wealthy countries, the core of IDA’s funding, shows signs of waning. For example, pledges by the U.S., historically IDA’s largest single donor, have generally declined over the years (despite a surge in funding last year). 

The Economic Development Assembly

That’s exactly why Global Citizen, Bridgewater Associates, and Harith General Partners are coming together this October to co-host the Economic Development Assembly in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. The Assembly will bring together Heads of State, public and private sector leaders, MDBs, and civil society members to drive financial investments to end extreme poverty across Africa and provide a clear case for major investments in IDA21. Specifically, Global Citizen is calling on donors to increase their contributions to ensure an at least $120 billion IDA replenishment in December, and for the IDA’s top donors to demonstrate leadership that will encourage others to do their part.

Mobilizing such investments is a daunting task. But failing to do so would lead to even more costly, lasting consequences. It’s yet another opportunity to prove that through collective action, the world can choose to take advantage of the incredible opportunities on the horizon and help put an end to extreme poverty.

See important disclosures and other information here.