Over the last two weeks, more than 65,000 delegates came together to work on the next global climate agreement at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the UN’s annual climate conference event. Held from Nov. 11 to Nov. 22 and unofficially dubbed as the “Finance COP,” many hoped that negotiations would result in an ambitious climate funding package for the world. Unfortunately, the goal of getting richer countries to agree to commit sufficient funds to alleviate climate impacts faced by vulnerable nations was nowhere near met.
COP29 is ending on a somber note. Stumbling so drastically at the finish line has left many disheartened with how discussions went — and even questioning if it’s worth coming to the negotiating table at all. “No deal is better than a bad deal,” commented Fadhel Kaboub, Senior Advisor at Power Shift Africa.
A Controversial Host in Azerbaijan
Following last year’s COP28 in Dubai, this is the second consecutive COP hosted in a country with a fossil-fuel based economy. Oil and gas products constitute half of the Azerbaijani economy and about 90% of the country’s exports. According to many, this set up a potential conflict of interest between the host’s economic interests and its purported commitment to successfully steering climate negotiations away from fossil fuels, as climate scientists and experts demand we must.
These fears manifested less than a week before negotiations started when COP29’s chief executive and deputy energy minister of Azerbaijan, Elnur Soltanov, was caught on camera using his position to help arrange new fossil fuel investment opportunities, confirming skeptical impressions regarding the host country’s commitment to genuine climate action.
If that wasn’t bad enough, more than 1,700 oil and gas lobbyists attended COP29, only just falling short of last year’s record of 2,456 lobbyists who gathered for COP28 in Dubai. Fossil fuel lobbyists were granted more COP29 passes than delegates from the 10 most climate-vulnerable countries, strongly suggesting that their presence may have had an impact on the failed negotiations.
Shifting Gears at Next Year’s Climate Talks in Brazil
Although Azerbaijan’s commitment to reducing emissions might be debatable, next year’s organizer has set a completely different tone. Brazil, the upcoming host of COP30 in Belém, was one of the first countries to release its 2035 climate action plan at COP29 (well ahead of the February 2025 deadline). Following the 2015 Paris agreement, countries are expected to create Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), or climate goals. The new Brazilian plan commits to reducing its carbon emissions by as much as two-thirds compared to 2005 levels.
One of the top ten greatest emitters of greenhouse gasses in history, Brazil is setting a positive tone for its commitment to action as the next COP host. The UK and the UAE also jumped in on the 2035 NDC announcement trend, with the UK committing to reduce its emissions by 81% in comparison to 1990 levels. Despite their early arrival, the Brazilian and Emirati plans fail to detail a fossil fuel phase-out strategy, indicating they may be prioritizing submitting early over fine-tuning a more coherent plan. And there’s no chance of solving the climate crisis without a global commitment to move away from fossil fuels in favor of renewable energy.
Increasing Indigenous Voices in Climate Talks
A highlight of this year’s COP was the launch of a new Indigenous People’s Troika. Bringing together Indigenous leaders from Brazil, Australia, Eastern Europe, and the Pacific region, this alliance will facilitate the participation and coordination of Indigenous action across COPs 29, 30, and 31. With about one third of all carbon found above ground on Indigenous land, it’s essential to ensure that Indigenous peoples are heavily engaged in all future climate talks.
Indigenous leaders at COP29 also left their mark by protesting against the construction of infrastructure, such as a controversial railroad project, on Indigenous land in the Brazilian Amazon. Demonstrators specifically denounced the lack of inclusion of Indigenous peoples in decision-making on climate goals.
Finance Talks Fall Flat
Perhaps the most important negotiations at COP29 centered on getting all parties to agree to a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) and deliberations persisted until the very last hour of the conference. The goal was to determine a global target that wealthier, high-polluting nations would contribute to help low-income countries with far fewer emissions build clean energy systems and better prepare for climate-related disasters.
Negotiations resulted in a $300 billion annual offer by 2035 from rich countries on the very last day of the conference. Less wealthy nations found the offer insulting, having initially asked for 1.3 trillion dollars. The proposed NCQG plan also left out crucial details on how the funds would be raised and distributed. With no specifics on important questions such as whether countries can expect grants or loans, or how the private sector would be involved, the proposal was widely seen as disappointing.
As Panama’s climate envoy Juan Carlon Monterrey Gomez stated, “This is definitely not enough. What we need is at least $5 trillion a year, but what we have asked for is just $1.3 trillion. That is 1% of global GDP.” He added: “It won’t put us on a path to 1.5°C. More like 3°C.” (That rise in temperatures has nearly catastrophic implications for life as we know it.)
The Road to COP30 in Belém
There were a few breakthroughs worth mentioning at this year’s COP, such as the creation of the Baku COP Presidencies Continuity Coalition for Climate and Health. Bringing together five COP presidencies and the World Health Organization (WHO), this coalition will focus on promoting policy actions that target the health impacts of climate change. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the countries most at risk from climate change are also the most susceptible to infectious diseases, a topic we explored in-depth at our Global Citizen NOW: Health and Climate Financing Sessions this year. The new coalition will focus on providing much-needed financing, promoting innovative financial mechanisms, and fostering collaboration between countries.
As lower-income countries express outrage at the $250 billion proposition, COP29 wraps up with no clear consensus. With financial negotiations dragging on until the very last hours, countries on the frontlines of climate change made it clear they will not accept “breadcrumbs.” Baku wraps up with little success at bridging the enormous climate finance gap that many hoped it would.
Brazil is already setting the stage for much bolder action at next year’s COP. We’re already looking ahead with our new campaign Power Our Planet, which will include a pit stop in Belém coinciding with COP30 as we advocate for ending deforestation, accelerating a just energy transition, and supporting climate-vulnerable communities. Baku ends with little to show for it — giving us all the more reason to prepare for taking action in 2025.
This series is made possible with funding from Beyond Bretton Woods and Middlebury College.