Who will actually turn up to the polls on Nov. 8?

It turns out that the United States’ low turnout rate — some 60% — doesn’t accurately speak for the voting habits of the entire country.

That’s because there are a slew of states that overperform that average, as well as a host in which consistently less voters come to the polls on Nov. 8. Those differences aren’t just trivial. They’re a critical question because, in the U.S., who actually votes may be more important than who candidates actually prefer.

Read More: Voting in Ohio: Everything You Need To Know

Turnout is “the critical variable” in this election, as a Reuters study notes. But, like with everything else this election, turnout predictability has been thrown out the window.

One reason? In August, Trump and Clinton peaked as the two most unfavorable presidential candidates. Ever.

Likewise, the 2016 election has seen a massive increase in early voting participation. Twice as much than in 2012, according to data from NBC. Already, some 26 million Americans have voted.

But what makes the 2016 election more exceptional is that one candidate hasn’t even believed in a get-out-the-vote effort. When asked about voter turnout on Fox New’s Talking Points Memo, Donald Trump said,

“I don’t know that we need to get out the vote. I think people that really want to vote, they’re gonna just get up and vote for Trump. And we’re going to make America great again.”

Trump’s campaign hasn’t followed the conventional political rulebook, nor has it courted the traditional GOP base. So he’ll be hedging his bets on “hidden voters” — disenfranchised voters who don’t typically engage politically — whose turnout ratings aren’t as easy to predict.

His campaign estimates them to be worth four or five points, which, in states like Florida, North Carolina and Nevada, could mean all the difference.

That is, if they #ShowUp.

So whether they’re hidden or predicted, here’s a breakdown of the top five best and worst states for voter turnout.

Best States: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire

If there’s one state that’s consistently outdone the other 49 in terms of #ShowingUp, it’s Minnesota.

In 2012, 76% of Minnesotans voted in the 2012 presidential election. If state-by-state voting were a competition, Minnesota beats its nearest competitor — Wisconsin at 73% —  by a solid three percentage-point margin.

The state also smashed its early voting records for 2016: 350,000 ballots have already been cast, about 12% of the state’s eligible voters.

It turns out that you can break down most of the reasons for Minnesota’s high turnout. Lenient voting laws have been helpful, such as same-day registration (SDR) and a hugely expanded early voting period — up to 46 days before Election Day.

Another is that its citizenry is highly engaged and politically diverse, despite the state typically going “blue” in national elections. Its past three governors have been of three different parties — Democratic, Republican, Independent all in the past decade.

Which goes to show that in the US’s most engaged state, voters aren’t necessarily partisan.

Read More: Voting in Florida: Everything You Need To Know

"If they feel passion, whether that’s like or dislike for a candidate, that’s going to drive people," Steve Simon, Minnesota’s Secretary of State, told the MinnPost. "We might fall short, and we might not, but it’s worth doing.”

Political engagement is also point of pride in Colorado (71.1%), New Hampshire (70.9%), Iowa (70.2%) and Wisconsin, all four of which are traditionally “battleground” states and boast high turnouts.

The connection there is clear: voters feel that their ballot matters more, and therefore feel compelled to vote.

They’re not all as convenient states for voting as Minnesota, but all four offer SDR. Which isn’t surprising — SDR states traditionally lead non-SDR states in terms of turnout, according to one study by Demos. In some instances, that difference is as high as 12%.

According to predictions from FiveThirtyEight, Hillary Clinton edges out Trump in Colorado, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Meanwhile in Iowa, Donald Trump stands a 63.8% chance of winning.

Lowest States: Hawaii, West Virginia, Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma

Maybe it’s not surprising that Hawaii’s citizenry is the most disengaged. Its voter turnout, at 45%, is the worst in the country, and almost all of those votes have been for Democratic presidential candidates.

That’s not surprising, according to Jeffrey Acido, who manages programs at a civic center in the Kahua Valley of Hawaii. He says most Hawaiians prefer not to be involved with the government at all, he told NBC, adding that physical distance, too, is a factor.


"If they feel passion, whether that’s like or dislike for a candidate, that’s going to drive people...We might fall short, and we might not, but it’s worth doing.”


In the other four low turnout states?

Unlike in swing-states, where the outcome of an entire election could be on the line, voters in states like West Virginia don’t feel incentivized to participate in what are typically foregone conclusions.

For a Democrat in West Virginia, Clinton’s .3% chance of winning doesn’t exactly make you skip your lunch break on Election Day to hit the ballots.

Read More:  Voting in Nevada: Everything You Need To Know

But, voting history aside, there are some legislative reasons for low turnout.

One might be that in Texas (50.1%) or in Arkansas (51%) if you didn’t register almost a month in advance, you’re out of luck on Nov. 8. Those deadlines are only slightly later for West Virginia and Oklahoma.

So-called “convenience legislature” has been statistically significant in the past. In 2012, one in eight voters registered on Election Day, and one third of voters used early-voting options to cast their ballot. One week before Election Day, early voting has already doubled, so we can expect more convenient voting laws to play an increasingly significant role in drumming up voter turnout.

In 2018, Hawaii will roll out same-day registration as well. That year, it might not be on the bottom of the list.

Explainer

Demand Equity

The 5 Best and 5 Worst States for Voter Turnout, and How They Got That Way

By Luca Powell