In the first of its kind, a new risk register has named the historic sites in Scotland that will be hit worst by the effects of climate change.
Rising sea levels, fiercer storms, higher rainfall, and more extreme temperatures are threatening some of the country’s most iconic buildings, according to the in-depth study by Historic Environment Scotland (HES).
The organisation, which oversees 336 of the country’s most important historic sites, has sounded the alarm on the potential dangers, issuing red and amber alerts for the sites that are most at risk.
Take action: Educating Girls Strengthens the Global Fight Against Climate Change
“Scotland’s climate is changing at an unprecedented rate,” according to the report, released on Monday. “The last century has been characterised by a continuous increase in temperatures, altering patterns of precipitation and increased frequency of unpredictable and extreme weather events.”
Since the 1960s, the report added, annual precipitation levels have increased by over 20%; it is over 1C warmer; and meanwhile, sea levels continue to rise at over 3mm a year.
And the “implications for the historic environment” could be significant.
That’s because changing climate conditions can alter and speed up the decay processes of historic monuments and archaeological sites, according to the report.
So historic buildings that have “survived well in the past and in current climatic conditions may become less able to cope with changing weather patterns caused by climate change.”
Read more: Scotland Bans Fracking After Overwhelming Public Support
Of the 352 sites investigated — which includes more than one area of “guardianship” for the 336 properties that HES protects — some 89% are exposed to high, or very high, levels of risk.
The report then considers factors like routine maintenance and conservation work, which puts the number of sites classified as “at risk” at 53%.
That includes some of the country’s most important castles, abbeys, Neolithic sites, and ruins.
Both Edinburgh Castle and Glasgow Cathedral were issued with “red alerts” based on the inherent risk from landslides and groundwater flooding, which is then reduced to an “amber alert” based on the protection the sites already receive.
The Neolithic village of Skara Brae, Maes Howe Chambered Cairn on Orkney, and the Viking village of Jarlshof, on the southern-most tip of mainland Shetland, all received the same “amber alert” due to the fact they’re already under constant supervision by HES.
However, even with protection, HES warned, sites could still be damaged by the kind of severe weather events that are now being forecast.
Read more: 9 Brilliant Ways the UK Is Cracking Down on Plastic Pollution
Another “amber alert” site named in the report is Holyrood Park in Edinburgh — home to Arthur’s Seat and Salisbury Crags, and which borders Holyrood Palace, the Queen’s official home in Scotland, as well as the Scottish parliament — and which is at risk of being damaged by landslides and flooding.
But of all the sites, HES has named 28 as being the most at risk, because they all record “very high” levels of risk in one or more of the six potential hazards investigated — and, vitally, they are not yet properly protected, leaving them at an “unacceptable level of risk exposure that requires immediate mitigating action.”
These sites, which are already fragile due to their age and to weathering, include: Fort George, a huge fortress built near Inverness after the battle of Culloden; the 800-year-old Inchcolm Abbey and Inchcolm Island on the Firth of Forth; and the Brough of Birsay, a Pictish and Viking-settled island in Orkney’s world heritage site.
It also includes a number of castles, including Sween, Dundonald, Elcho, Kisimul, and Newark, as well as the Biggar Gasworks.
Read more: Scientists Warn That the Arctic Might Not Be the Arctic for Very Long
The report combined data from the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), the Scottish agency that monitors climate change, from the British Geological Survey, and from the agency’s own site surveys.
And HES is now calling for urgent protection for the most at risk sites, with forecasts projecting that the problem will only get worse.
According to predictions from SEPA, sea levels around Scotland will increase by between 16.6 and 28 centimetres by 2050, putting coastal sites particularly at risk; temperates will rise on average by 2.8C in summer, and 2.2C in winter; and average rainfall will rise by 16% in winter, and fall by 13% in summer.
Global Citizen campaigns on the UN Global Goals, which include steps on climate change, and sustainable cities and communities. You can join us by taking action on these issues here.