It’s official — Donald Trump is once again President of the United States. One of his first orders of business? Something that climate diplomats and activists alike have been bracing for: the US’s second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.

Trump’s team wasted no time issuing executive orders to once again withdraw the US — currently the world’s second-biggest polluter, after China — from the primary treaty coordinating international action against climate change. Citing no sources, he claimed on inauguration day that not taking part in the “unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off” would somehow save the US “over a trillion dollars.” It’s a kickoff to a new year and presidential term that many experts fear may see climate action severely set back. 

But when it comes to international climate efforts, there are some things even Trump won’t be able to reverse course on. Here’s what may come next — and how leaders and activists can pick up the climate mantle that Washington DC is dropping. 

First — A Refresher on the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is the United Nations’ most important climate treaty. Nearly 200 countries came together in 2015 to coordinate efforts to curb global emissions. The treaty requires countries to submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) outlining their plans to reduce emissions to help limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. While submitting these NDCs is mandatory, the emissions targets themselves are not legally binding. The treaty is monumental because it marks the first time that the world has come together to collectively fight the greatest existential threat of our time.

But Trump has long made his intention to pull out of the Paris Agreement clear, repeatedly calling climate change a “hoax” on the 2024 campaign trail (despite decades of data that says otherwise) during the world’s record-breaking hottest year ever. He did successfully yank the US out of the treaty once before — but only briefly. Due to a stipulation preventing initial signatories from withdrawing until three years had passed (on top of the treaty’s year-long withdrawal process), Trump’s four years in office were nearly up by the time the exit formally took effect, allowing then-incoming President Joe Biden to rejoin it just four months later. 

This time however, there’s no waiting period in play, leaving Trump free to kick off the withdrawal process immediately for an official exit in January 2026. Then, the US will join ranks with just three other countries outside of the deal (Iran, Libya, and Yemen). 

What Are the Stakes This Time Around?

The blow to the US’s climate credibility on the world stage is tough to overstate. Withdrawing from the Paris Agreement means that the US will no longer have to report its climate goals or emissions targets, undermining its international accountability. While the US can still attend the UN’s annual climate meetings (known as COPs),  the country will be downgraded to just “observer” status, so it won’t be able to meaningfully influence key policy decisions. 

Another side effect is that the US will have fewer legal responsibilities to provide climate financing for lower-income, climate-vulnerable countries. Climate finance is not a handout — it’s an investment in global stability for the entire world. The US has historically been a key contributor to international climate funds, but Trump has indicated he wants to scale that back, too. Worse yet, some fear that the US’s exit may embolden other nations to also drop their efforts, further stalling global progress at a time when cooperation is sorely needed. 

But while exiting the treaty undoubtedly throws a wrench in international climate plans, the broader momentum behind climate action and renewable energy is likely too far along to be reversed. Let’s take a closer look at why.

A Booming Clean Energy Economy

The political and economic environment that Trump is stepping back into is far different from the one he entered in 2017. While the US’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is a setback, it’s unlikely to halt the global expansion of clean energy that’s picked up steam over the years, with a global market expected to triple by 2035. 

In the US, this is largely due to the transformative impact of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Despite its dry name, it’s one of the most exciting and dynamic green policy packages in US history. Through a series of tax credits and incentives, the IRA successfully drove $369 billion dollars towards renewable initiatives across the country in just one year, ushering in a booming era of clean energy. Despite Trump’s calls to “drill, baby, drill” (even as the US already produces more oil and natural gas than any other nation in history), fossil fuel demand is projected to decrease in the years ahead, meaning his push for “energy dominance” risks creating a supply glut and an outdated energy system. 

The kicker? Most of the IRA’s funding (85%) has been invested directly in majority-Republican districts — meaning that Trump may face the most stringent opposition from his own party if he attempts to roll it back, as he’s promised to. But the legislation’s bipartisan benefits means a full-on repeal may prove too politically risky to move forward. As if that wasn’t enough, undoing US climate policies could create up to $80 billion in lost investment opportunities that other countries are poised to snap up instead.

State and Local Governments Can Pick Up the Slack

Even if Washington continues to disappoint, state and local government action alone can achieve nearly 75% of US climate goals under the Paris Agreement, without federal leadership.

Such action occurred regularly throughout Trump’s first term. More recent examples include Texas’ new storm-resilient homes and the oil-friendly state’s rapidly expanding renewable energy industry, Vermont’s floodplain restoration, and $1.4 billion in savings for Michigan utility customers from the state’s energy efficiency programs, while New York City’s Local Law 97 aims to cut building emissions by 40% by 2030.

There is also now a broad movement of American cities, states, and businesses who remain committed to the Paris Agreement. Coalition efforts include The US Climate Alliance, Climate Mayors, and America Is All In, which bring together state, city, and private sector leaders to push climate action, proving that progress doesn’t hinge on federal leadership alone. And advocacy groups like Climate Changemakers are already meeting this moment head-on, launching a campaign providing people with the tools and actions they need to pressure state and local leaders to put climate at the top of their policy agendas. 

So — What Comes Next? 

The climate crisis won’t stop just because Trump ignores it. Climate advocates worldwide must double down, push leaders, and keep building pressure at the grassroots level. We can all play a part in keeping the Paris Agreement’s goals alive, even if the US is no longer officially a part of it.

The push toward clean energy isn’t limited to just the States, it’s global. State policies, global market forces, and local economies all favor the rise of renewables. Driven by both economic and environmental imperatives, clean energy investments around the world have nearly doubled those for coal, oil, and gas combined, and renewables are now cheaper to deploy than fossil fuels.

As former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres noted, a sequel to the Trump presidency won’t be able to “halt the changes underway to decarbonize the economy to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.” That train has already left the station. The question is no longer if we can build a more sustainable world, but how quickly it will happen despite the political bumps ahead.